Relationships between teacher estimates and results in Scotland
Description
Teachers in Scotland routinely submit estimates each year to the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) as part of the awarding process for National Qualifications. This report contains analyses of the correspondence between estimates and grades awarded in August 2024, and for the years 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023.
Documents
- Analysis of Estimated and Resulted Grades for National Graded Qualifications
- Estimates Analysis Tables 2024
- Estimates Guidance - November 2024
Date of Publication: 05 November 2024
Details
Overall, when all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined, estimated attainment rates corresponded well with results. In 2024, A to C attainment rates were 1.3 percentage points (pp) higher than estimated grades, which is a decrease from 2.5 and 2.9pp in 2023 and 2022, respectively. However, in 2019 A to C attainment rates were 0.8 pp lower than estimated. The difference in resulted and estimated grades at grade A only is more consistent, with more grades awarded than estimated, typically between five and six pp each year.
In total, 49.5% of all national qualification level entries were awarded the same grade as estimated in 2024. At National 5, 51.6% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 30.8% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 17.7% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. At Higher, 46.9% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 29.6% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 23.5% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. At Advanced Higher, 44.3% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 26.8% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 29.0% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade.
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Estimates Analysis 2023
Description
Teachers in Scotland routinely submit estimates each year to the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) as part of the awarding process for National Qualifications. This report contains analyses of the correspondence between estimates and grades awarded in August for 2023, and for the years 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022.
Documents
- Relationships between teacher estimates and results in Scotland
- Estimates Guidance January 2020 Applicable prior to the pandemic
- Estimates Guidance April 2020 Updated guidance for 2019/20 session
- Estimates Guidance October 2020
- Estimates Guidance October 2021
Date of Publication: 07 November 2023
Details
Between 2017 and 2019, when all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined, estimated attainment rates corresponded very well with results. Grades A to C estimates were around one percentage point higher than results, but there was a gap at grade A (estimates were typically between six and seven percentage points lower than results). In 2022 and 2023, attainment rates were higher than estimated: A to C attainment were between two and four percentage points higher than estimated. Grade A attainment in 2023 was around six percentage points higher than estimated, this gap increasing compared to 2022 (which saw a five percentage point difference between estimated and awarded A grades).
In total 49.8% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated in 2023, whilst 31.9% were awarded a higher grade and 18.3% were awarded a lower grade. When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade.
Estimates Analysis 2017 to 2019 and 2022
Description
Teachers in Scotland routinely submit estimates each year to the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) to use in awarding National Qualifications. This report contains analyses of the correspondence between estimates and grades awarded in August for 2022 and for 2017 to 2019.
Documents
- Relationships between teacher estimates and results in Scotland
- Estimates Guidance January 2020 Applicable prior to the pandemic
- Estimates Guidance April 2020 Updated guidance for 2019/20 session
- Estimates Guidance October 2020
- Estimates Guidance October 2021
Date of Publication: 03 November 2022
Details
Overall, when all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined, estimated attainment rates corresponded very well with results, between 2017 and 2019, at grades A to C (typically overestimating by one percentage point) but underestimated attainment at grade A (typically underestimating by six percentage points). In 2022, attainment rates were higher than estimated: grade A to C attainment was three percentage points higher than estimated, and grade A attainment was five percentage points higher than estimated.
In total 51% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated in 2022, whilst 30% were awarded a higher grade and 19% were awarded a lower grade. When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade and the awarded grade was more often higher (than estimated) than lower.