Background information

Purpose

Progression presents a summary of progression between consecutive years from National 4 to National 5, National 5 to Higher, and Higher to Advanced Higher.

Status

These data are classified as official statistics in development.

Geography and time period covered

This publication presents data on progression for National Qualifications in Scotland between consecutive academic years.

Description

Progression tables present data for learners achieving the lower qualification level of the subject in the previous year to each available graded result at the higher qualification level of the subject in the given publication year (National 4 to National 5, National 5 to Higher, and Higher to Advanced Higher).

The figures are produced by professional independent statistical staff in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Approach to awarding, 2022 to 2024

In 2024, awarding used the well-established procedures to evaluate the performance of the course assessment and, where appropriate, considered the impact of changes to assessment brought about by the return to full course assessment for many courses. These changes to assessment included the removal of optionality in some question papers and the reintroduction of:

  • coursework components (projects, assignments, dissertations)
  • optional content into question papers
  • course content examined in question papers
  • an exam component

Further details about the approach to awarding in 2024 can be found in the methodology report.

In 2023, awarding operated using the established procedure as far as possible, but with consideration given to the following factors:

  • impact of the reducing legacy of disruption to teaching and learning caused by the pandemic.
  • impact of modifications to course assessment.
  • impact of the removal of revision support.

Awarding decisions were therefore ‘sensitive’ to these factors, ensuring that grade boundary decisions recognised that performance continues to be impacted. This was informed by the full range of qualitative and quantitative data used during awarding, with additional data from 2021-22 on the impact of modifications. Further details about the approach to awarding in 2023 can be found in the methodology report.

In 2022, SQA worked with partners across the education sector, including teachers, lecturers, learners, parents and carers, throughout the year to agree the wide-ranging package of support that was put in place to enable learners to demonstrate what they know, understand and can do, despite the disruption to learning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. SQA implemented various modifications and revision support to reduce the assessment requirements for courses and increase learning and teaching time. Further details about the approach to awarding in 2022 can be found in the methodology report..

Source of data

National Qualification data used in the production of these figures is the same as Attainment Statistics — December

Methodology

Progression from an ungraded to graded National Qualification is only considered for National 4 to National 5, given that such qualifications were designed to be in a hierarchy. In most instances, only subjects with a direct (intended by design) progression route are included. Typically, these progression routes will involve qualifications at consecutive levels with the same qualification code. A small number of alternative subject progression routes are considered where the number of learners involved is moderate or high, and/or no direct progression is available between levels. (For example, Human Biology is not available at Advanced Higher level, so the progression route Higher Human Biology to Advanced Higher Biology is given.) For cases where progression is between subjects with different titles, these are explicitly detailed as ‘Subject Name X’ and ‘Subject Name Y’ in the title columns of the data tables.

Figures for courses available in different languages are combined and reported as a single course. These courses are:

  • Mandarin (Traditional), Mandarin (Simplified) and Cantonese are reported as Chinese Languages.
  • Mathematics and Matamataig are reported as Mathematics.
  • Applications of Mathematics and Gnìomhachas Matamataigs are reported as Applications of Mathematics.
  • Geography and Cruinn-eòlas are reported as Geography.
  • History and Eachdraidh are reported as History.
  • Modern Studies and Nuadh-eòlas are reported as Modern Studies.
  • Biology and Bith-eòlas at National 4 are reported as Biology.

Progression from National 4 to National 5 is reported as the number of learners progressing from any National 4 result to each of the available National 5 grades (A to No Award). Only learners who have been entered at National 4 in the earlier academic year and an A to No Award grade at National 5 in the following academic year for the subjects in the progression pathway are included in the calculations.

Progression from National 5 to Higher and Higher to Advanced Higher is reported as the percentage of learners progressing from the individual given grades (A to No Award) at the lower level to each of the available grades (A to No Award) at the higher level. For example, progression from a grade A in National 5 to each of the grades (A to No Award) at Higher. Only learners who have an A to No Award grade at the lower level in the earlier academic year and an A to No Award grade at the higher level in the following academic year for the subjects in the progression pathway are included in the calculations.

The ‘Total Learners Progressing’ figure is the total number of learners progressing from the lower level to the higher level. In the National 5 to Higher and Higher to Advanced Higher tables this number will be repeated for each row, but it is not specific to progression from each individual given grade at the lower level.

Confidentiality and rounding

‘Total Learners Progressing’ figures are rounded to the nearest ten. ‘Total Learners Progressing’ figures between one and nine (inclusive) have been suppressed to protect against the risk of disclosure of personal information. All percentage figures for a course have been suppressed where the ‘Total Learners Progressing’ figure between one and nine inclusive have been suppressed. Cells containing suppressed figures are marked up with the shorthand [c].

‘Not applicable’ is used where no learners have progressed from the given grade at the lower level to any grade at the higher level. Cells containing such figures are marked up with the shorthand [z].

Percentages are calculated using figures prior to rounding. Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, with a value greater than zero and less than 0.5% marked up with the shorthand [low].

Total values of rows are calculated using figures prior to rounding; the sum of rounded figures may differ from the total reported.

Limitations

SQA external assessments returned in 2022, but significant assessment modifications were put in place with the aim to increase learning and teaching time. The course assessment modifications were retained for 2023. In 2024, SQA returned to full course assessment for many of the graded National Qualifications. The different awarding arrangements in place between 2020 and 2024 mean that it is not possible to compare attainment between years without full consideration of this contextual information.

SQA produces progression analysis for the purpose of recording learner movement within subject areas. The data show actual observed attainment of learners across two consecutive academic years. As this analysis does not take into account a variety of factors which influence learner attainment, and is based on recorded statistical data, it should not be used to support measures or decisions with respect to particular individuals. As a consequence, progression information should not be used to determine what qualification/level choices are appropriate for any particular learner because the information does not take into account the individual circumstances of the learner.

Official statistics in development

Official statistics in development are official statistics that are undergoing development; they may be new or existing statistics, and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

To ensure the statistics are developed in a way that is useful we invite users to provide their views and feedback on future developments or improvements that could be made to these statistics to meet your needs. If you have comments or questions, please contact us: .