Progression Statistics 2024

Contents

• Progression statistical summary
• Learner progression counts
  • National 4 to National 5
  • National 5 to Higher
  • Higher to Advanced Higher
• Learner progression proportions
  • National 4 to National 5
  • National 5 to Higher
  • Higher to Advanced Higher
• Progression grade breakdown for Mathematics and English
  • Mathematics
  • English
• Background information
• Feedback

Progression statistical summary

This document is a summary of the progression statistics from National 4 to National 5, National 5 to Higher, and Higher to Advanced Higher following the completion of appeals and other post-certification procedures.

In this release, progression statistics for 2024 are presented with reference to progression from the previous year, 2023. It is not possible to compare the progressions in terms of attainment grades in this publication with those from previous publications. Rates of progression in attainment grades from one course level to the next are influenced by variation in attainment in both the course from the earlier year, and the course from the later year. In addition, assessments in 2022, 2023 and 2024 have each had in place different degrees of modifications and different approaches to awarding. These are outlined in the background information section.

At a subject level, it is possible to compare the number of learners progressing from certification at one level to certification at the next level, over consecutive academic sessions. This is captured both in terms of number of learners, and proportion of learners progressing.

Official statistics in development are official statistics that are undergoing development. They may be new or existing statistics, and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

This is the second time progression statistics have been published as official statistics in development. This publication focuses on different characteristics of the data to the 2023 progression statistics publication. To ensure that the statistics are developed in a useful way, we invite users to provide their views and feedback on future developments or improvements that could be made. If you have comments or questions, please contact us: data.analytics@sqa.org.uk

Learner progression counts

This section contains tables showing the five subjects with the highest number of progressing learners at each qualification level. (There may be more than five subjects where multiple subjects have equal counts.)

Learner progression proportions

This section contains tables showing the top five subjects with the highest proportions of progressing learners at each qualification level. (There may be more than five subjects where multiple subjects have equal proportions.)

It should also be noted that the five subjects with the highest proportion of progressing learners vary widely in terms of their number of learners. This should be considered if comparing across subjects.

Progression grade breakdown for Mathematics and English

This section provides analysis of English and Mathematics between National 4, National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher

Background information

The ‘Total Learners Progressing’ columns are the total number of learners progressing from the lower qualification level to the higher qualification level between the stated years.

‘Total Learners Progressing’ figures between one and nine (inclusive) have been suppressed to protect against the risk of disclosure of personal information, and are marked up with the shorthand [c]. All percentage figures relating to that course have also been suppressed. The remaining ‘Total Learners Progressing’ figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

The ‘National 4/National 5/Higher Subject Entries’ columns are the number of learners entered at the lower qualification level in the stated year, rounded to the nearest ten.

The ‘Proportion Progressing’ columns for the stated years are the proportion of learners who were entered at the lower qualification level who were then, a year later, entered at the higher qualification level.

‘Not applicable’ is used where no learners have progressed from the given grade at the lower level to any grade at the higher level. Cells containing such figures are marked up with the shorthand [z].

Percentages are calculated using figures prior to rounding. Percentages are then rounded to the nearest integer.

SQA produces progression analysis for the purpose of recording learner movement within subject areas. The data show actual observed attainment of learners across a consecutive set of years. As this analysis does not take into account a variety of factors which influence learner attainment, and is based on recorded statistical data, it should not be used to support measures or decisions with respect to particular individuals. As a consequence, progression information should not be used to determine what qualification/level choices are appropriate for any particular learner - this information does not take into account the individual circumstances of the learner.

Figures for courses available in different languages are combined and reported as a single course. These courses are as follows: Mandarin (Traditional), Mandarin (Simplified) and Cantonese are reported as Chinese Languages. Mathematics and Matamataig are reported as Mathematics. Applications of Mathematics and Gnìomhachas Matamataigs are reported as Applications of Mathematics. History and Eachdraidh are reported as History. Biology and Bith-eòlas at National 4 are reported as Biology.

Progression from National 4 to National 5 is reported as the number of learners progressing from any National 4 result to each of the available National 5 grades (A to No Award). Only learners who have been entered at National 4 in the earlier academic year and an A to No Award grade at National 5 in the following academic year for the subjects in the progression pathway are included in the calculations.

Progression from National 5 to Higher and Higher to Advanced Higher is reported as the percentage of learners progressing from the individual given grades (A to No Award) at the lower level to each of the available grades (A to No Award) at the higher level. For example, progression from a grade A in National 5 to each of the grades (A to No Award) at Higher. Only learners who have an A to No Award grade at the lower level in the earlier academic year and an A to No Award grade at the higher level in the following academic year for the subjects in the progression pathway are included in the calculations.

Only subjects with a direct progression route are included. Typically, these progression routes will involve a qualification at consecutive levels with the same qualification code. A small number of alternative subject progression routes are considered where the number of learners involved is moderate or high, and/or no direct progression is available between levels. (For example, Human Biology is not available at Advanced Higher level, so the progression route Higher Human Biology to Advanced Higher Biology is given.)

Refer to the background information document for additional information such as data sources, methodology and limitations.

Feedback

Progression Statistics 2024 is classified as official statistics in development, and we invite users to provide their views and feedback on future developments or improvements that could be made to meet your needs. If you have comments or questions, please contact us: data.analytics@sqa.org.uk