Analysis of Estimated and Resulted Grades for National Graded Qualifications
Contents
Introduction
This report is a summary of centre submitted estimates and how they compare to attained results for graded National Qualifications published on results day in August. It reflects attainment at a particular point in time (23rd July 2024) and does not include post results services.
SQA collects attainment estimates for each candidate entered to each qualification, where possible, from centres every year as a part of the procedure for awarding National Courses. Centres provide estimates of attainment against the national standard as bands on a 9-point scale that is associated with notional percentage ranges. The relationship between bands and grades is shown in Table 1. Estimates contribute towards grade boundary decisions for a course because they give an indication of the demand of the course assessment. SQA also collects estimates as one line of evidence in support of an ‘Exceptional Circumstances Consideration’ request.
In this release, estimate data for 2024 are presented with reference to attainment in the same year (2024), drawing comparisons with the previous year (2023) and to the most recent year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2019). The different awarding arrangements in place between 2020 and 2024 prevent comparisons between years without fully considering this contextual information.
Approach to awarding, 2020 to 2024
Both 2020 and 2021 are not included in this report. In 2020, the Deputy First Minister directed SQA to issue grades primarily on the basis of teacher estimates. Grades that had been adjusted upwards in an earlier moderation process were also retained. Details about the moderation process used in 2020 is described in the methodology report for 2020.
In 2021, the Scottish Government commissioned SQA to develop an Alternative Certification Model (ACM 2021) for National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher. This model was developed by the National Qualifications 2021 Group and is represented by the Association of Directors of Education in Scotland (ADES), Colleges Scotland, Education Scotland, the Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS), School Leaders Scotland (SLS), the Scottish Council of Independent Schools (SCIS), Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA), the Scottish Government, National Parent Forum of Scotland, and the Scottish Youth Parliament (SYP). The model is based on teacher judgement, supported by assessment resources and quality assurance. The approach to certification adopted by SQA in 2021 is described in detail in the methodology report for 2021.
Throughout 2022, SQA worked with teachers, lecturers, learners, parents and carers to agree the wide-ranging package of support put in place to enable learners to demonstrate what they know, understand and can do, despite the disruption to learning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. SQA implemented various modifications and revision support to reduce the assessment requirements for courses and increase learning and teaching time. Further details about the approach to awarding in 2022 can be found in the methodology report.
In 2023, awarding operated using the established procedure as far as possible to evaluate the performance of the course assessment, but with consideration given to the following factors:
- The impact of reducing legacy of disruption to teaching and learning caused by the pandemic.
- The impact of modifications to course assessment.
- The impact of the removal of revision support.
Awarding decisions were therefore ‘sensitive’ to these factors, ensuring that grade boundaries recognised that performance continued to be impacted. This was informed by the full range of qualitative and quantitative data used during awarding, with additional data from 2021–22 on the impact of modifications. Further details about the approach to awarding in 2023 can be found in the methodology report.
In 2024, the well-established pre-pandemic awarding procedures were used to evaluate the performance of the course assessment and, where appropriate, considered the impact of changes to assessment brought about by the return to full course assessment for many courses. These changes to assessment included removing optionality in some question papers reintroducing:
- coursework components (projects, assignments, dissertations)
- optional content into question papers
- course content examined in question papers
- an exam component
Further details about the approach to awarding in 2024 can be found in the methodology report.
Methodology
Graded National Qualification data is collected in late July following the completion of certification procedures. The data is collected at around the same time each year to aid year-on-year comparisons.
Centres submit estimates of bands ranging from 1 to 9. Operationally, these bands relate to the overall mark via a notional percentage range and thus a grade. For example, a ‘band 1’ corresponds to a notional percentage range of 85% to 100% which corresponds to a grade A (upper). The full breakdown of bands with the notional percentage range is documented in Guidance on Evidence for Estimates and shown in Table 1.
| Band | Grade | Notional Range (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A (upper) | 85 to 100 |
| 2 | A (lower) | 70 to 84 |
| 3 | B (upper) | 65 to 69 |
| 4 | B (lower) | 60 to 64 |
| 5 | C (upper) | 55 to 59 |
| 6 | C (lower) | 50 to 54 |
| 7 | D | 40 to 49 |
| 8 | No Award | 30 to 39 |
| 9 | No Award | 0 to 29 |
Estimate data is held for the majority of qualifications however, those entries where estimates were not submitted have been removed from this dataset (<2% of entries each year). An estimate of ‘0’ is possible, however in practice this value is used when centres are unable to or otherwise do not enter an estimate. An estimate of ‘0’ was therefore excluded in all analyses.
For each qualification level contained in the report: National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher, both the total resulted and estimated attainments are calculated. As some candidates are excluded due to missing or not applicable estimates, the resulted attainment rates may differ to the statistics in our Attainment Statistics publications.
Both estimate and attainment data by sex include only those who identified as ‘Male’ or ’Female’. This is to prevent the candidates being recognised due to the low numbers in the ‘Not Known’ and ‘Not Applicable’ categories.
Centre types ‘Education Authority - Secondary School’ and ‘Education Authority - Special School’ are grouped as ‘Education Authority (EA) centres’; centre types ‘Independent - Secondary School’ and ‘Independent - Special School’ are grouped as ‘Independent centres’. Further Education Colleges and all remaining centre types, including training providers, voluntary sector organisations, HM Armed Forces, prisons and primary schools have relatively low uptake for graded National Qualifications and the range of subjects taken in these settings is also considerably narrower than that of the EA and Independent centres in this release. For these reasons, estimate and attainment data by centre type include only EA and Independent centres.
The correlation between estimates and results was computed by qualification level and subject (using the Pearson’s correlation method). Correlation is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables, ranging from -1.00 to 1.00. In this report, scores were positive only, ranging from 0.00 (no relationship) to 1.00 (a very strong positive relationship, meaning when one variable increases, the other also increases). A negative correlation (where one variable increases while the other decreases) would be highly unusual in this context and was not found in this analysis.
Confidentiality and rounding
Percentages, percentage changes, and percentage point (pp) changes are calculated using figures prior to rounding. Percentages with a value greater than zero and less than 0.05% are marked up with the shorthand [low]. Values are calculated using figures prior to rounding; the sum of rounded figures may differ from the total reported.
Patterns of attainment are not examined here but can be found in the Attainment Statistical Summary published on the SQA website.
Qualification level breakdown
Overall
For graded National Qualifications across all levels, centre estimates are collated and compared to the overall awarded results for each year.
Estimates and Awards A to C Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results across all levels that were awarded grades A to C was 76.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points (pp) from those estimated (75.2%). This 1.3 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 3.5 pp in 2023 and increased from -0.8 pp in 2019. A positive difference highlights that, proportionally, more awards were resulted than estimated, while a negative difference infers that fewer awards were resulted than estimated.
Estimates and Awards A to C Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and Awards A Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results across all levels that were awarded an A grade was 35.0%, an increase of 6.2 pp from those estimated (28.8%). This 6.2 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has increased from 6.1 pp in 2023 and decreased from 6.3 pp in 2019.
Estimates and Awards A Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 32.6% | 38.0% | 36.2% | 35.0% |
| Estimated | A | 26.2% | 33.0% | 30.1% | 28.8% |
| Awarded | B | 24.1% | 23.7% | 23.2% | 22.5% |
| Estimated | B | 24.6% | 22.1% | 21.8% | 22.4% |
| Awarded | C | 20.7% | 18.6% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| Estimated | C | 27.4% | 22.3% | 22.8% | 24.0% |
| Awarded | A to C | 77.4% | 80.2% | 78.2% | 76.5% |
| Estimated | A to C | 78.3% | 77.4% | 74.7% | 75.2% |
| Awarded | D | 13.4% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 13.0% |
| Estimated | D | 12.2% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 13.3% |
| Awarded | No Award | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% |
| Estimated | No Award | 9.6% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 11.4% |
National 5
Estimates and Awards A to C Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results at National 5 that were awarded grades A to C was 77.6%, an increase of 2.1 pp from those estimated (75.4%). This 2.1 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 4.4 pp in 2023 and increased from 0.0 pp in 2019.
Estimates and Awards A to C Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and Awards A Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results at National 5 that were awarded an A grade was 38.2%, an increase of 8.1 pp from those estimated (30.1%). This 8.1 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has increased from 7.3 pp in 2023 and increased from 7.5 pp in 2019.
Estimates and Awards A Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 35.3% | 40.3% | 38.5% | 38.2% |
| Estimated | A | 27.8% | 33.6% | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| Awarded | B | 24.0% | 23.0% | 22.4% | 21.9% |
| Estimated | B | 24.0% | 21.3% | 21.1% | 22.0% |
| Awarded | C | 19.3% | 17.5% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| Estimated | C | 26.8% | 21.8% | 21.9% | 23.3% |
| Awarded | A to C | 78.6% | 80.8% | 78.7% | 77.6% |
| Estimated | A to C | 78.6% | 76.7% | 74.2% | 75.4% |
| Awarded | D | 12.6% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 11.8% |
| Estimated | D | 12.2% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 13.1% |
| Awarded | No Award | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% |
| Estimated | No Award | 9.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 11.4% |
Evaluation of Candidates’ Awarded and Estimated Grades
Further analysis of 2024 data shows that 51.6% of National 5 candidates were awarded the same result as they were estimated. 17.7% of candidates were awarded a grade lower than they were estimated - this is further broken down to 14.3%, 3.1% and 0.4% of all candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades below their estimated grade, respectively. The remaining 30.8% of candidates achieved a higher grade than they were estimated: 22.8%, 6.6% and 1.4% of candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades above their estimated grade, respectively.
| Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 2 below | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| 1 below | 16.0% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 14.3% |
| Same | 48.4% | 52.4% | 51.5% | 51.6% |
| 1 above | 23.6% | 23.4% | 23.7% | 22.8% |
| 2 above | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% |
| 3+ above | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
The majority of National 5 candidates in 2024 were awarded their estimated grade (51.6%), an increase of 3.2 pp from 2019 where just under half of all estimated grades were the same as those awarded (48.4%) highlighting a small increase in estimate-award accuracies. In 2024, a total of 82.3% of candidates were awarded the same grade or higher than their estimated grade. For comparison, this is a decrease of 1.7 pp from 84.0% in 2023 and an increase of 2.6 pp from 79.7% in 2019.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Award below estimate | 20.3% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 17.7% |
| Award same as estimate | 48.4% | 52.4% | 51.5% | 51.6% |
| Award above estimate | 31.3% | 31.7% | 32.4% | 30.8% |
To observe the National 5 estimate data in more detail, for each candidate awarded grades are mapped to their estimated grade using the heatmap below, with each square highlighting the proportion of candidates with the corresponding awarded and estimated grades. The diagonal (outlined black boxes) highlights where result and estimate grades match. In 2024, 25.2% of candidates were estimated an A grade and were awarded an A grade. Going along the diagonal, 8.4%, 7.8%, 4.0% and 6.1%, of candidates were estimated and awarded grades B, C, D and No Award, respectively. The off-diagonal is where the estimated and resulted grades differ. For example, in 2024, 9.0% of candidates were estimated a B grade and resulted in an A grade; 1.9% of candidates were estimated a D grade and resulted in a B grade. The colouring of the heatmap shows high proportions shown in blue and low proportions in white. This highlights a gradient where large deviations between estimated and resulted grades are unlikely.
For all resulted grades that were not matched with their estimate in 2024 (48.4% of all National 5 grades), the majority differ by only one grade from estimated (76.4%). Where grades were awarded below the estimate, 80.6% differed by one grade and 19.4% differed by two or more grades. Where grades were awarded above the estimate, 74.0% differed by one grade and 26.0% differed by two or more grades. A similar pattern is observed across all years shown.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Higher
Estimates and Awards A to C Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results at Higher that were awarded grades A to C was 74.9%, an increase of 0.5 pp from those estimated (74.4%). This 0.5 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 2.7 pp in 2023 and decreased from -1.7 pp in 2019.
Estimates and Awards A to C Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and Awards A Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results at Higher that were awarded an A grade was 30.3%, an increase of 3.6 pp from those estimated (26.7%). This 3.6 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 4.8 pp in 2023 and decreased from 4.7 pp in 2019.
Estimates and Awards A Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 28.5% | 34.9% | 32.8% | 30.3% |
| Estimated | A | 23.8% | 31.7% | 28.0% | 26.7% |
| Awarded | B | 24.3% | 24.3% | 24.1% | 23.4% |
| Estimated | B | 24.9% | 22.8% | 22.5% | 22.6% |
| Awarded | C | 22.6% | 19.9% | 20.3% | 21.2% |
| Estimated | C | 28.3% | 23.0% | 24.0% | 25.1% |
| Awarded | A to C | 75.3% | 79.1% | 77.1% | 74.9% |
| Estimated | A to C | 77.0% | 77.5% | 74.5% | 74.4% |
| Awarded | D | 15.3% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.8% |
| Estimated | D | 12.6% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 13.9% |
| Awarded | No Award | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% |
| Estimated | No Award | 10.4% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 11.7% |
Evaluation of Candidates’ Awarded and Estimated Grades
Further analysis of 2024 data shows that 46.9% of Higher candidates were awarded the same result as they were estimated. 23.5% of candidates were awarded a grade lower than they were estimated - this is further broken down to 18.1%, 4.7% and 0.7% of all candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades below their estimated grade, respectively. The remaining 29.6% of candidates achieved a higher grade than they were estimated: 21.5%, 6.6% and 1.5% of candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades above their estimated grade, respectively.
| Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ below | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 below | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% |
| 1 below | 18.9% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 18.1% |
| Same | 44.0% | 48.8% | 47.4% | 46.9% |
| 1 above | 22.4% | 21.5% | 22.7% | 21.5% |
| 2 above | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% |
| 3+ above | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
The largest proportion of Higher candidates in 2024 were awarded their estimated grade (46.9%), an increase of 2.9 pp from 2019 (44.0%) highlighting a small increase in estimate-award accuracies. In 2024, a total of 76.5% of candidates were awarded the same grade or higher than their estimated grade. For comparison, this is a decrease of 2.6 pp from 79.1% in 2023 and an increase of 1.8 pp from 74.7% in 2019.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Award below estimate | 25.3% | 21.8% | 20.9% | 23.5% |
| Award same as estimate | 44.0% | 48.8% | 47.4% | 46.9% |
| Award above estimate | 30.7% | 29.5% | 31.7% | 29.6% |
To observe the Higher estimate data in more detail, for each candidate awarded grades are mapped to their estimated grade using the heatmap below, with each square highlighting the proportion of candidates with the corresponding awarded and estimated grades. The diagonal (outlined black boxes) highlights where result and estimate grades match. In 2024, 19.4% of candidates were estimated an A grade and were awarded an A grade. Going along the diagonal, 8.7%, 8.7%, 4.6% and 5.4%, of candidates were estimated and awarded grades B, C, D and No Award, respectively. The off-diagonal is where the estimated and resulted grades differ. For example, in 2024, 7.2% of candidates were estimated a B grade and resulted in an A grade; 1.9% of candidates were estimated a D grade and resulted in a B grade. The colouring of the heatmap shows high proportions shown in blue and low proportions in white. This highlights a gradient where large deviations between estimated and resulted grades are unlikely.
For all resulted grades that were not matched with their estimate in 2024 (53.1% of all Higher grades), the majority differ by only one grade from estimated (74.5%). Where grades were awarded below the estimate, 77.1% differed by one grade and 22.9% differed by two or more grades. Where grades were awarded above the estimate, 72.5% differed by one grade and 27.5% differed by two or more grades. A similar pattern is observed across all years shown.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Advanced Higher
Estimate and Award A to C Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results at Advanced Higher that were awarded grades A to C was 75.5%, a decrease of 3.3 pp from those estimated (78.8%). This -3.3 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has increased from -1.2 pp in 2023 and decreased from -4.4 pp in 2019. Of note, for Advanced Higher, this difference each year is negative, highlighting that more candidates are estimated an A to C grade than are awarded.
Estimate and Award A to C Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimate and Award A Attainment Rates
In 2024, the proportion of results at Advanced Higher that were awarded an A grade was 30.1%, an increase of 1.8 pp from those estimated (28.3%). This 1.8 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 1.9 pp in 2023 and decreased from 4.8 pp in 2019.
Estimate and Award A Attainment Rates graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 31.8% | 33.8% | 33.0% | 30.1% |
| Estimated | A | 27.0% | 35.2% | 31.2% | 28.3% |
| Awarded | B | 25.0% | 26.1% | 25.7% | 23.5% |
| Estimated | B | 29.1% | 25.9% | 25.7% | 25.8% |
| Awarded | C | 22.8% | 21.6% | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| Estimated | C | 27.9% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 24.7% |
| Awarded | A to C | 79.6% | 81.5% | 80.0% | 75.5% |
| Estimated | A to C | 84.0% | 83.7% | 81.2% | 78.8% |
| Awarded | D | 8.4% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 14.7% |
| Estimated | D | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.0% |
| Awarded | No Award | 11.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.7% |
| Estimated | No Award | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% |
Evaluation of Candidates’ Awarded and Estimated Grades
Further analysis of 2024 data shows that 44.3% of Advanced Higher candidates were awarded the same result as they were estimated. 29.0% of candidates were awarded a grade lower than they were estimated - this is further broken down to 20.7%, 7.0% and 1.3% of all candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades below their estimated grade, respectively. The remaining 26.8% of candidates achieved a higher grade than they were estimated: 19.2%, 6.1% and 1.5% of candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades above their estimated grade, respectively.
| Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ below | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 below | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
| 1 below | 18.9% | 20.7% | 19.5% | 20.7% |
| Same | 43.5% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 44.3% |
| 1 above | 20.1% | 18.6% | 20.5% | 19.2% |
| 2 above | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| 3+ above | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
The largest proportion of Advanced Higher candidates in 2024 were awarded their estimated grade (44.3%), an increase of 0.8 pp from 2019 (43.5%) highlighting a small increase in estimate-award accuracies. In 2024, a total of 71.0% of candidates were awarded the same grade or higher than their estimated grade. For comparison, this is a decrease of 3.4 pp from 74.4% in 2023 and a decrease of 0.3 pp from 71.3% in 2019.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Award below estimate | 28.7% | 27.8% | 25.6% | 29.0% |
| Award same as estimate | 43.5% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 44.3% |
| Award above estimate | 27.8% | 24.7% | 27.7% | 26.8% |
To observe the Advanced Higher estimate data in more detail, for each candidate awarded grades are mapped to their estimated grade using the heatmap below, with each square highlighting the proportion of candidates with the corresponding awarded and estimated grades. The diagonal (outlined black boxes) highlights where result and estimate grades match. In 2024, 19.2% of candidates were estimated an A grade and were awarded an A grade. Going along the diagonal, 8.9%, 8.2%, 3.8% and 4.2%, of candidates were estimated and awarded grades B, C, D and No Award, respectively. The off-diagonal is where the estimated and resulted grades differ. For example, in 2024, 7.3% of candidates were estimated a B grade and resulted in an A grade; 1.7% of candidates were estimated a D grade and resulted in a B grade. The colouring of the heatmap shows high proportions shown in blue and low proportions in white. This highlights a gradient where large deviations between estimated and resulted grades are unlikely.
For all resulted grades that were not matched with their estimate in 2024 (55.7% of all Advanced Higher grades), the majority differ by only one grade from estimated (71.6%). Where grades were awarded below the estimate, 71.4% differed by one grade and 28.6% differed by two or more grades. Where grades were awarded above the estimate, 71.8% differed by one grade and 28.2% differed by two or more grades. A similar pattern is observed across all years shown.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Sex breakdown
As detailed in our Attainment Statistical Summary publication, over time, attainment rates are typically higher for female candidates than for male candidates for all qualification levels. The following analysis looks at the estimates of these candidates for each qualification level.
National 5
In 2024, 51.6% of all National 5 candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Looking at this data by sex highlights small differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. In 2024, a greater proportion (53.1%) of female candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, an increase of 3.2 pp compared to male candidates (50.0%). 15.2% and 23.1% of male candidates were awarded one grade below and one grade above their estimated grade, a decrease of 2.0 and 0.7 pp, respectively, compared to their female counterparts (13.3% and 22.4%). The total proportion of female candidates achieving two or more grades above or below their estimated grade is 11.2%, and similarly 11.7% for male candidates.
National 5 graphs
| Sex | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Male | 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Female | 2 below | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| Male | 2 below | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% |
| Female | 1 below | 15.1% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 13.3% |
| Male | 1 below | 16.9% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 15.2% |
| Female | Same | 49.6% | 54.1% | 53.3% | 53.1% |
| Male | Same | 47.1% | 50.7% | 49.6% | 50.0% |
| Female | 1 above | 23.4% | 22.6% | 22.9% | 22.4% |
| Male | 1 above | 23.8% | 24.3% | 24.6% | 23.1% |
| Female | 2 above | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% |
| Male | 2 above | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% |
| Female | 3+ above | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Male | 3+ above | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
The proportion of female candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of male candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2024, 83.5% of female candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 81.1% of male candidates. Comparing 2024 to 2023, for female candidates this is a decrease of 1.0 pp from 84.5% and a decrease of 2.2 pp from 83.4% for male candidates. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 2.8 pp from 80.7% for female candidates and an increase of 2.5 pp from 78.6% for male candidates.
National 5 graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Sex | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | Award below estimate | 19.3% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 16.5% |
| Male | Award below estimate | 21.4% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 18.9% |
| Female | Award same as estimate | 49.6% | 54.1% | 53.3% | 53.1% |
| Male | Award same as estimate | 47.1% | 50.7% | 49.6% | 50.0% |
| Female | Award above estimate | 31.1% | 30.4% | 31.2% | 30.4% |
| Male | Award above estimate | 31.6% | 33.0% | 33.7% | 31.2% |
Higher
In 2024, 46.9% of all Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Breaking down this data by sex highlights small differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. In 2024, a greater proportion (47.5%) of female candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, an increase of 1.5 pp compared to male candidates (46.1%). 18.4% and 21.8% of male candidates were awarded one grade below and one grade above their estimated grade, a decrease of 0.7 and 0.5 pp, respectively, compared to their female counterparts (17.8% and 21.3%). The total proportion of female candidates achieving two or more grades above or below their estimated grade is 13.4%, and similarly 13.7% for male candidates.
Higher graphs
| Sex | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 3+ below | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Male | 3+ below | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Female | 2 below | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% |
| Male | 2 below | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% |
| Female | 1 below | 18.8% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| Male | 1 below | 19.0% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 18.4% |
| Female | Same | 44.6% | 49.5% | 48.1% | 47.5% |
| Male | Same | 43.2% | 47.8% | 46.7% | 46.1% |
| Female | 1 above | 22.0% | 20.6% | 21.9% | 21.3% |
| Male | 1 above | 23.0% | 22.5% | 23.6% | 21.8% |
| Female | 2 above | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| Male | 2 above | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% |
| Female | 3+ above | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| Male | 3+ above | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
The proportion of female candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of male candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2024, 76.8% of female candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 76.1% of male candidates. Comparing 2024 to 2023, for female candidates this is a decrease of 1.9 pp from 78.8% and a decrease of 3.4 pp from 79.5% for male candidates. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 2.1 pp from 74.7% for female candidates and an increase of 1.4 pp from 74.7% for male candidates.
Higher graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Sex | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | Award below estimate | 25.3% | 22.2% | 21.2% | 23.2% |
| Male | Award below estimate | 25.3% | 21.3% | 20.5% | 23.9% |
| Female | Award same as estimate | 44.6% | 49.5% | 48.1% | 47.5% |
| Male | Award same as estimate | 43.2% | 47.8% | 46.7% | 46.1% |
| Female | Award above estimate | 30.1% | 28.3% | 30.7% | 29.3% |
| Male | Award above estimate | 31.5% | 30.9% | 32.9% | 30.0% |
Advanced Higher
In 2024, 44.3% of all Advanced Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Looking at this data by sex highlights small differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. In 2024, a lesser proportion (44.0%) of female candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, a decrease of 0.5 pp compared to male candidates (44.5%). 20.4% and 18.3% of male candidates were awarded one grade below and one grade above their estimated grade, an increase of 0.4 and 1.8 pp, respectively, compared to their female counterparts (20.9% and 20.0%). The total proportion of female candidates achieving two or more grades above or below their estimated grade is 15.1%, and 16.8% for male candidates.
Advanced Higher graphs
| Sex | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 3+ below | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Male | 3+ below | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Female | 2 below | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% |
| Male | 2 below | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% |
| Female | 1 below | 19.3% | 21.2% | 19.8% | 20.9% |
| Male | 1 below | 18.3% | 20.1% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| Female | Same | 44.1% | 47.7% | 46.8% | 44.0% |
| Male | Same | 42.8% | 47.3% | 46.6% | 44.5% |
| Female | 1 above | 20.1% | 18.6% | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| Male | 1 above | 20.2% | 18.6% | 20.0% | 18.3% |
| Female | 2 above | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% |
| Male | 2 above | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% |
| Female | 3+ above | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Male | 3+ above | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
The proportion of female candidates who attained their estimated grade is lower than the proportion of male candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2024, 71.5% of female candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 70.5% of male candidates. Comparing 2024 to 2023, for female candidates this is a decrease of 3.0 pp from 74.5% and a decrease of 3.9 pp from 74.4% for male candidates. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 0.3 pp from 71.2% for female candidates and an increase of 0.9 pp from 71.3% for male candidates.
Advanced Higher graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Sex | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | Award below estimate | 28.8% | 27.8% | 25.5% | 28.5% |
| Male | Award below estimate | 28.7% | 27.8% | 25.6% | 29.5% |
| Female | Award same as estimate | 44.1% | 47.7% | 46.8% | 44.0% |
| Male | Award same as estimate | 42.8% | 47.3% | 46.6% | 44.5% |
| Female | Award above estimate | 27.1% | 24.5% | 27.7% | 27.4% |
| Male | Award above estimate | 28.6% | 25.0% | 27.7% | 25.9% |
Centre type breakdown
As detailed in our Attainment Statistical Summary publication, over time, attainment rates are higher for Independent centres than for Education Authority centres and the same is true for 2024. FE colleges have a relatively low uptake for graded qualifications and present candidates for a considerably narrower range of subjects. For this reason, estimates from FE colleges and other centre types are not comparable here.
National 5
In 2024, 51.6% of National 5 candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Breaking down this data at a centre type level presents differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. A greater proportion (67.6%) of Independent centre candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, an increase of 17.0 pp compared to EA centre candidates (50.6%). The proportion of Independent centre candidates awarded one grade below their estimated grade was 5.8% this is a 9.0 pp decrease when compared with EA centre candidates (14.8%). The proportion of Independent centre candidates awarded one grade above their estimated grade was 18.8%, a 4.3 pp decrease when compared with EA centre candidates (23.1%). The total proportion of Independent centre candidates achieving two or more grades either above or below their estimated grade is 7.8%, compared with 11.6% for EA centres candidates.
National 5 graphs
| Centre Type | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Independent | 3+ below | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Education Authority | 2 below | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% |
| Independent | 2 below | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Education Authority | 1 below | 16.6% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 14.8% |
| Independent | 1 below | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% |
| Education Authority | Same | 47.5% | 51.2% | 50.5% | 50.6% |
| Independent | Same | 62.4% | 71.0% | 68.2% | 67.6% |
| Education Authority | 1 above | 23.8% | 23.9% | 24.2% | 23.1% |
| Independent | 1 above | 21.0% | 16.4% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| Education Authority | 2 above | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% |
| Independent | 2 above | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| Education Authority | 3+ above | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Independent | 3+ above | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
The proportion of National 5 Independent centre candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of National 5 EA centre candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2024, 93.3% of Independent centre candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 81.7% of EA centre candidates. Comparing 2024 to 2023 for Independent centres, this is an increase of 0.7 pp from 92.6% and an increase of 1.7 pp from 83.4% for EA centres. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 0.8 pp from 92.4% for Independent centre types and an increase of 2.7 pp from 78.9% for EA centres.
National 5 graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Centre Type | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | Award below estimate | 21.1% | 16.5% | 16.6% | 18.3% |
| Independent | Award below estimate | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% |
| Education Authority | Award same as estimate | 47.5% | 51.2% | 50.5% | 50.6% |
| Independent | Award same as estimate | 62.4% | 71.0% | 68.2% | 67.6% |
| Education Authority | Award above estimate | 31.5% | 32.4% | 33.0% | 31.1% |
| Independent | Award above estimate | 30.0% | 21.7% | 24.5% | 25.7% |
Higher
In 2024, 46.9% of Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Looking at this data at a centre type level presents differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. A greater proportion (57.8%) of Independent centre candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, an increase of 11.8 pp compared to EA centre candidates (46.0%). The proportion of Independent centre candidates awarded one grade below their estimated grade was 10.8% this is a 7.9 pp decrease when compared with EA centre candidates (18.7%). The proportion of Independent centre candidates awarded one grade above their estimated grade was 20.5%, a 1.2 pp decrease when compared with EA centre candidates (21.6%). The total proportion of Independent centre candidates achieving two or more grades either above or below their estimated grade is 10.9%, compared with 13.7% for EA centres candidates.
Higher graphs
| Centre Type | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | 3+ below | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Independent | 3+ below | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Education Authority | 2 below | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% |
| Independent | 2 below | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Education Authority | 1 below | 19.4% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| Independent | 1 below | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.8% |
| Education Authority | Same | 43.4% | 47.9% | 46.6% | 46.0% |
| Independent | Same | 54.7% | 61.7% | 58.1% | 57.8% |
| Education Authority | 1 above | 22.8% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 21.6% |
| Independent | 1 above | 21.6% | 17.1% | 19.9% | 20.5% |
| Education Authority | 2 above | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% |
| Independent | 2 above | 8.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% |
| Education Authority | 3+ above | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Independent | 3+ above | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
The proportion of Higher Independent centre candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of Higher EA centre candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2024, 87.1% of Independent centre candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 75.8% of EA centre candidates. Comparing 2024 to 2023 for Independent centres, this is an increase of 0.8 pp from 86.3% and an increase of 2.9 pp from 78.7% for EA centres. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 0.3 pp from 86.9% for Independent centre types and an increase of 1.4 pp from 74.4% for EA centres.
Higher graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Centre Type | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | Award below estimate | 25.6% | 22.0% | 21.3% | 24.2% |
| Independent | Award below estimate | 13.1% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Education Authority | Award same as estimate | 43.4% | 47.9% | 46.6% | 46.0% |
| Independent | Award same as estimate | 54.7% | 61.7% | 58.1% | 57.8% |
| Education Authority | Award above estimate | 30.9% | 30.1% | 32.1% | 29.7% |
| Independent | Award above estimate | 32.2% | 23.4% | 28.3% | 29.3% |
Advanced Higher
In 2024, 44.3% of Advanced Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Breaking down this data at a centre type level presents differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. A greater proportion (51.6%) of Independent centre candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, an increase of 9.0 pp compared to EA centre candidates (42.6%). The proportion of Independent centre candidates awarded one grade below their estimated grade was 14.6% this is a 7.4 pp decrease when compared with EA centre candidates (22.0%). The proportion of Independent centre candidates awarded one grade above their estimated grade was 20.5%, a 1.5 pp decrease when compared with EA centre candidates (19.0%). The total proportion of Independent centre candidates achieving two or more grades either above or below their estimated grade is 13.3%, compared with 16.4% for EA centres candidates.
Advanced Higher graphs
| Centre Type | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | 3+ below | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Independent | 3+ below | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Education Authority | 2 below | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% |
| Independent | 2 below | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% |
| Education Authority | 1 below | 20.2% | 21.5% | 20.9% | 22.0% |
| Independent | 1 below | 12.6% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| Education Authority | Same | 41.5% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 42.6% |
| Independent | Same | 52.7% | 57.8% | 56.1% | 51.6% |
| Education Authority | 1 above | 20.1% | 19.2% | 20.5% | 19.0% |
| Independent | 1 above | 20.4% | 15.6% | 20.7% | 20.5% |
| Education Authority | 2 above | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Independent | 2 above | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% |
| Education Authority | 3+ above | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| Independent | 3+ above | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% |
The proportion of Advanced Higher Independent centre candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of Advanced Higher EA centre candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2024, 81.0% of Independent centre candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 68.9% of EA centre candidates. Comparing 2024 to 2023 for Independent centres, this is an increase of 3.3 pp from 84.3% and an increase of 3.4 pp from 72.3% for EA centres. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 1.7 pp from 82.6% for Independent centre types and an increase of 0.1 pp from 68.9% for EA centres.
Advanced Higher graphs
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Centre Type | Grade Difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | Award below estimate | 31.1% | 29.1% | 27.7% | 31.1% |
| Independent | Award below estimate | 17.4% | 21.0% | 15.7% | 19.0% |
| Education Authority | Award same as estimate | 41.5% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 42.6% |
| Independent | Award same as estimate | 52.7% | 57.8% | 56.1% | 51.6% |
| Education Authority | Award above estimate | 27.4% | 25.4% | 27.6% | 26.2% |
| Independent | Award above estimate | 30.0% | 21.2% | 28.2% | 29.4% |
Subject type breakdown
In this section, this relationship between estimated and resulted grades are summarised by subject grouping, the following table highlights which subjects fall within each category. At subject level, a range of factors are expected to impact the connection between estimated and resulted awards. It is possible to collapse the similarity between estimated and resulted grades to a single metric, for each qualification, this is known as the correlation. The correlation measures the strength of the relationship between the two metrics, producing a ‘correlation value’ ranging between 0.00 and 1.00, where 1.00 represents a match between estimated grades and awarded grades for all candidates and 0.00 denotes resulted grades differing to the estimated grade for all candidates The correlation calculation requires variation in both the estimated and resulted grade, and so low uptake subjects (fewer than 100 entries) have been removed from the following calculations to account for this. The correlation subjects at each qualification level are represented by a single point in the correlation plot below. To prevent overlap, the points are scattered along the x-axis which shows the density of subjects around each correlation value.
The data in the following figures can be found in the accompanying tables.
| Group | Subjects |
|---|---|
| Business | Accounting, Administration and IT, Business Management, Economics |
| Care | Care, Childcare and Development |
| Creative | Art and Design, Dance, Drama, Media, Music, Music Technology, Photography, Art and Design (Expressive), Art and Design (Design), Music: Portfolio |
| English | English, English for Speakers of Other Languages |
| Home Economics | Fashion and Textile Technology, Health and Food Technology, Hospitality: Practical Cake Craft, Hospitality: Practical Cookery, Practical Cake Craft, Practical Cookery |
| Languages | Cantonese, French, Gaelic (Learners), Gaidhlig, German, Italian, Latin, Mandarin (Simplified), Mandarin (Traditional), Spanish, Urdu |
| Mathematics | Applications of Mathematics, Mathematics, Gniomhachas Matamataigs (Applications of Mathematics), Matamataig (Mathematics), Mathematics of Mechanics, Statistics |
| PE | Physical Education |
| Science | Biology, Chemistry, Environmental Science, Physics, Human Biology |
| Social Science | Classical Studies, Geography, History, Modern Studies, Philosophy, Psychology, Religious, Moral and Philosophical Studies, Sociology, Cruinn-eolas (Geography), Eachdraidh (History), Nuadh-Eolas (Modern Studies), Politics |
| Technology | Computing Science, Design and Manufacture, Engineering Science, Graphic Communication, Practical Electronics, Practical Metalworking, Practical Woodworking |
National 5
The Care subject grouping encompasses two lower uptake subjects (Care & Childcare and Development) and so comparisons with this grouping are inequitable and not considered here for National 5. In 2024, of all National 5 subject groupings, Languages has the lowest proportion of candidates achieving a result below their estimate at 8.4%. This is contrasted with Technology subjects which have the highest proportion of candidates attaining a result below their estimate (24.6%). Across the years, PE and Language subjects have consistently the lowest candidate proportions achieving results below their estimate, with Technology and Social Science subjects feature the highest proportions of results below estimates. Where estimates match the resulted grade, PE and Languages have the highest proportions, 60.8% and 61.3%, respectively, with Business subjects having the lowest proportion (43.5%), this is similar across the years. For those grades resulted above candidate estimates, Business and English subjects have the highest proportions, 43.0% and 36.1%, respectively, and is again similar across the years.
National 5 graphs
In 2024, the lowest correlation value (0.48) sits further away from the next lowest value, as denoted by the thinner shape outline. However, many subjects have a correlation value close to the mean (0.72) and so we can see more points congregating where the shape outline widens. The range of correlation values in 2024 is less than the other years presented here (0.37, 0.40, 0.41 and 0.40 in 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2019, respectively). When comparing 2024 with 2019, not only is the range of subject correlations reduced but the mean correlation is greater in 2024 (0.72) compared to 2019 (0.67), which highlights an increase in proportion of matched estimates with awarded grades.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Higher
The Care subject grouping encompasses two lower uptake subjects (Care & Childcare and Development) and so comparisons with this grouping are inequitable and not considered here. In 2024, of all Higher subject groupings, Mathematics and PE have the lowest proportion of candidates achieving a result below their estimate at 17.0% and 17.0%, respectively. This contrasts with Technology subjects which have the highest proportion of candidates attaining a result below their estimate (37.5%). This pattern is similar across the years observed here, with Mathematics and PE subjects having consistently lower proportions of below estimate results, while Technology and Home Economic subjects have the highest proportions of results below estimates. Where estimates match the resulted grade, Language subjects have the highest proportion (64.6%) and Home Economics subjects have the lowest proportion (38.7%), this is similar across the years observed here. For grades awarded above candidate estimates, Business subjects have the highest proportion (37.5%) with Languages and Technology subjects having the lowest proportions (16.6% and 17.7%, respectively), and is again similar across the years observed.
Higher graphs
In 2024, the lowest correlation value (0.39) sits further away from the next lowest value, as denoted by the thinner shape outline. However, many subjects have a correlation value close to the mean (0.68) and so we can see more points congregating where the shape outline widens. The range of Higher subjects’ correlation values in 2024 is higher than the other years presented here (0.47, 0.42, 0.40 and 0.44 in 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2019, respectively). This can primarily be seen at the top end indicating that some subjects have an increased proportion of matched estimates with awarded grades. The mean correlation value has increased each year, from 0.62 in 2019 to 0.68 in 2024, further emphasising the increase in proportion of matched estimates with awarded grades.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Advanced Higher
In 2024, of all Advanced Higher subject groupings, Creative subjects have the lowest proportion of candidates achieving a result below their estimate at 18.2%. This is contrasted with Technology subjects which have the highest proportion of candidates attaining a result below their estimate (45.9%). The Home Economics subject grouping encompasses only one lower uptake subject (Health and Food Technology) at Advanced Higher level, and so comparisons with this grouping are inequitable and not considered here. This pattern is similar across the years observed here, with Creative subjects having consistently lower proportions of below estimate results, with Technology subjects having the highest proportion of resulted awards below estimates. Where estimates match the resulted grade, Languages and Creative subjects have the highest proportions (56.0% and 49.9%, respectively), with English and PE subjects having the lowest proportion (36.0% and 37.5%), this is similar across the years observed here. For those resulted grades above candidate estimates, Mathematics and Creative subjects have the highest proportions (32.3% and 31.9%), with Technology subjects having the lowest proportion of resulted grades above estimates (16.5%) and is again similar across the years observed.
Advanced Higher graphs
In 2024, the lowest correlation value (0.45) sits further away from the next lowest value, as denoted by the thinner shape outline. However, many subjects have a correlation value close to the mean (0.60) and so we can see many more points congregating where the shape outline widens. The range of correlation values for Advanced Higher subjects in 2024 (0.27) is lower than 2023 (0.38) and 2022 (0.29) and is same as in 2019 (0.27). However, the mean correlation value has increased in 2024 to 0.60 from 0.56 in 2019 but decreased from 0.61 and 0.62 in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Note: The period between 2020 and 2021 indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Additional information
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These statistics are classified as Information.
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The data in this publication is defined as being statistical for the purposes of information governance and data protection. This primarily means that the associated processing is not carried out for the purposes of measures or decisions with respect to a particular data subject. Further information on this processing category can be found in the appropriate data protection legislation.
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Date of publication: 05 November 2024
Contact name: Chris Boulter
Contact email: data.analytics@sqa.org.uk